DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/13 11:25
Grains Mixed at Midday
Soybeans turned green this morning, after lower overnight trade. Corn and
wheat are weaker at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures down 40. The
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 9 points lower. Energies
are weaker with crude down 0.30. Livestock trade has hogs firmer and cattle
lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold 15.50 lower.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade coming off the
overnight lows while wheat remains a drag on the market. The weather forecast
looks fairly mild in the near term after today. Ethanol margins continue to not
be great; ethanol is down again this AM and is now nearly 70 cents a gallon
cheaper than unleaded futures. This should encourage more usage and blending.
Corn basis even with this board sell off is fading ahead of harvest and late
season corn movement with harvest likely to start a couple weeks. The weekly
export inspections remained strong at 1.261 million metric ton range with
142,238 metric tons of new crop corn to Mexico on the daily wire with 71,121 of
19-20 crop year corn sold as well. The weekly crop progress is expected to show
steady to slightly lower conditions, and maturity remaining solidly ahead of
normal. On the September chart futures have support at the lower Bollinger Band
at 3.42, and resistance the 20-day at 3.61.
Soybean trade is 1 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade firming back from
the dime lower trade seen overnight. Meal is $2 to $3 higher and oil is flat to
10 points lower. The weather forecast has drifter wetter for the all but the NW
part of the belt. Bean basis has started to slide ahead of harvest with the
slow start to export bookings offsetting strong crush margins. Weather looks to
be a non-issue in the near term. Weekly export inspections were within
expectations at 580,024 metric tons along with 142,500 metric tons of soybeans
sold to Mexico. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady to slightly
lower conditions, and maturity above normal. On the September chart trade has
support at the lower Bollinger Band at $8.30 and resistance the 20-day at
Wheat trade is 12 to 17 cents lower at midday with trade seeing selling
build after some initial strength with Matif milling wheat retreating in Europe
to open the week. Spring wheat progress will pick up with the warmer weather
returning this week with harvest expanding with mixed yields so far. Trade
continues to worry about taxes and restrictions off of the Black Sea as harvest
wraps up but the cheaper currency will help to offset in the near term with the
Black Sea looking to be able to maintain the pace near term. HRW basis remains
sideways to lower as the US struggles to compete on the export market even with
the end of European harvest amid their difficulties. Australia remains on the
dry side with the crop pace ahead of normal as well. Weekly crop progress is
expected to show winter wheat harvest effectively complete, with spring wheat
running around the normal pace. Export inspections showed some improvement at
462,854 metric tons. On the September Kansas City chart we are have support at
the 20-day at 5.42, and resistance the 10-day at 5.71.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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