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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/13 11:25

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans turned green this morning, after lower overnight trade. Corn and 
wheat are weaker at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures down 40. The 
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 9 points lower. Energies 
are weaker with crude down 0.30. Livestock trade has hogs firmer and cattle 
lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold 15.50 lower.

   CORN

   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade coming off the 
overnight lows while wheat remains a drag on the market. The weather forecast 
looks fairly mild in the near term after today. Ethanol margins continue to not 
be great; ethanol is down again this AM and is now nearly 70 cents a gallon 
cheaper than unleaded futures. This should encourage more usage and blending. 
Corn basis even with this board sell off is fading ahead of harvest and late 
season corn movement with harvest likely to start a couple weeks. The weekly 
export inspections remained strong at 1.261 million metric ton range with 
142,238 metric tons of new crop corn to Mexico on the daily wire with 71,121 of 
19-20 crop year corn sold as well. The weekly crop progress is expected to show 
steady to slightly lower conditions, and maturity remaining solidly ahead of 
normal. On the September chart futures have support at the lower Bollinger Band 
at 3.42, and resistance the 20-day at 3.61.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 1 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade firming back from 
the dime lower trade seen overnight. Meal is $2 to $3 higher and oil is flat to 
10 points lower. The weather forecast has drifter wetter for the all but the NW 
part of the belt. Bean basis has started to slide ahead of harvest with the 
slow start to export bookings offsetting strong crush margins. Weather looks to 
be a non-issue in the near term. Weekly export inspections were within 
expectations at 580,024 metric tons along with 142,500 metric tons of soybeans 
sold to Mexico.  Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady to slightly 
lower conditions, and maturity above normal. On the September chart trade has 
support at the lower Bollinger Band at $8.30 and resistance the 20-day at 
$8.73. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 12 to 17 cents lower at midday with trade seeing selling 
build after some initial strength with Matif milling wheat retreating in Europe 
to open the week.  Spring wheat progress will pick up with the warmer weather 
returning this week with harvest expanding with mixed yields so far. Trade 
continues to worry about taxes and restrictions off of the Black Sea as harvest 
wraps up but the cheaper currency will help to offset in the near term with the 
Black Sea looking to be able to maintain the pace near term. HRW basis remains 
sideways to lower as the US struggles to compete on the export market even with 
the end of European harvest amid their difficulties. Australia remains on the 
dry side with the crop pace ahead of normal as well. Weekly crop progress is 
expected to show winter wheat harvest effectively complete, with spring wheat 
running around the normal pace. Export inspections showed some improvement at 
462,854 metric tons. On the September Kansas City chart we are have support at 
the 20-day at 5.42, and resistance the 10-day at 5.71.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


(BAS)

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