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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/27 12:16

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Midday trade is seeing light gains with some pullback from the earlier highs.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 50 points. 
The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 30 points higher. 
Energies are flat to firmer with crude up 0.05. Livestock trade is mixed. 
Precious metals are higher with gold up $8.60.


   Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade trying to build on 
the positive close yesterday with the forecast cooler and drier in the near 
term. Temperatures should be normal to below normal so without stressful 
weather market bulls may have trouble near term, but the rains disappointed in 
the drier parts of Iowa. Ethanol margins have improved this week with the 
strength in the energy complex and lower corn futures although they have 
narrowly slightly the last day and a half, with ethanol futures edging higher 
this morning. Corn basis remains soft with plenty of old crop stocks still 
around. Weekly export sales were soft at 92,000 metric tons of old crop and 
486,600 of new crop. On the December chart support is at the new July low made 
earlier in the week at $3.80 1/2 with resistance at the 200-day at $3.88 which 
we are just above at midday then the 10-day at $3.91. 


   Soybean trade is 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with light buying after rains 
were disappointing in much of Iowa. Meal is $2 to $3 higher and oil is narrowly 
mixed. Cooler temperatures will limit upside in the near term, even with the 
disappointing rain coverage. We still have 6 important weeks of weather ahead 
for beans with cooler and drier weather expected in the near term. Basis has 
remained steady to firm, with good nearby export demand at the gulf noted and 
Palm oil making two month highs. Weekly export sales were good at 303,400 
metric tons old crop, and 531,800 metric tons of new, 6,700 of old crop meal, 
55,200 of new crop meal, and 14,900 of oil. On the November chart support is at 
the 20-day at 10.02 with resistance at the 10-day at 10.07.


   Wheat trade is 3 to 7 cents higher with trade working to bounce back from 
oversold conditions as the spring wheat tour continues to move into the drier 
growing areas with recent yields in the mid-30s after abandoned acres are taken 
out. The dollar remains near year lows, but Jordan postponed its tender leaving 
France as the most recent winner of export business. Trade continues to add 
carry in the spring wheat, with winter wheat keeping the ample carry in place. 
Weekly export sales were mediocre at 498,000 metric tons. On the December 
Kansas City contract support is the 100-day at $4.94. Resistance is at the 
50-day at $5.11 then the 10-day at $5.20.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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